基于Wiener和Copula函数性能退化模型的减推力起飞可靠性收益评估研究

A Study on Reliability Benefit Assessment of ReducedThrust Takeoff Based on Performance DegradationModel of Wiener and Copula Functions

关键词:  航空发动机  减推力起飞  可靠性  Wiener过程  Copula函数

Key words:  Aero-engine  Reduced thrust takeoff  Reliability  Wiener course  Copula function

摘要:

从精细化、规范化管理使用发动机的角度出发，针对航空发动机减推力起飞在可靠性和安全收益指标的贡献度量化评估问题，提出了一种基于性能退化分析的可靠性收益评估方法。建立了单个性能参数Wiener退化量模型，并利用Copula函数进行二元相关性能参数退化量建模，提出了基于Copula函数和Wiener退化过程的二元相关性能可靠性模型。将模型应用于实例分析，通过发动机执行减推力和未执行减推力时的性能退化数据，定量地分析了执行减推力起飞技术对可靠性和在役寿命方面的贡献度，并将文中提出的方法与基于单参数的性能可靠度函数以及二元独立性能参数的性能可靠度函数进行对比分析。结果表明，执行减推力起飞技术的发动机在运行中有更高的安全裕度，在役寿命平均延长了23%左右。

Abstract:

From the point of refinement and standardized management using engine， a method based on performance degradation analysis was proposed targeted at the issue of aero-engine’s reduced thrust takeoff reliability and safety benefit assessment. At first， a single performance parameter Wiener degradation model was set up， and Copula function was used to conduct binary relevant parameter degradation modeling. Then a binary relevant parameter reliability model was proposed based on Copula function and Wiener degradation course. Finally the model was applied to case analysis， comparing a certain type of engine with and without reducing thrust， a quantitative analysis was made to prove the contribution in reliability and online life of implementing reduced thrust takeoff technology. And the method proposed in the thesis was compared with performance reliability function based on single parameter and binary independent performance parameters， through analysis. The results show that the engine with the technology of reducing thrust take-off has higher safety margin and an average of 23% of the online life is extended.